NFC South 2025 Division Preview
Can Tampa Bay make it 5 in a row?
Is this the worst division in football? There’s definitely an argument to be made that it has been as of late. Three of the four teams had a losing record in 2024, thus rendering Tampa Bay the division champion nearly by default. The NFC South seems to be the football (and geographical) opposite of the AFC North, but we’ll get to that later.
But, as Bob Dylan once famously wrote, “the times they are a-changing.” Or… are they?
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have won the NFC South for 4 consecutive years, and while they’ve been a solid team, they’ve had extremely little competition. There is potential for that to change, however, in 2025.
All three of the other teams in this division have first or second year head coaches, and very young starting QBs. The potential is there for the Panthers, Falcons, and Saints to change the course of this division, but will they capitalize on it?
Let’s take a look at the NFC South entering the 2025 season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
In 2024:
10-7 record, NFC South Champions
3rd in total offense
3rd in passing offense
4th in rushing offense
18th in total defense
29th in passing defense
4th in rushing defense
Baker Mayfield and the entire passing offense for Tampa has been their calling card. Mayfield has completely reinvented himself following his stint in Cleveland (and other stops along the way), and is one of the more prolific passers in the NFL at this point. Surrounded by top notch receiving talent surely helps, but this passing offense has been humming in recent seasons, especially in 2024.
But the exact opposite is true on the other side of the ball. The passing defense has been horrendous (Kirk Cousins 500 yard game?) and their achilles heel. Whether or not that pass defense can be fixed in 2025 is anyone’s guess, but it’d better change if they plan on taking this franchise to the next level.
The Coaching Staff:
Todd Bowles returns as head coach for his 4th season with Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers have won the NFC South division crown each year of his current tenure as head coach, which, regardless of competition, is still an impressive feat. Coach Bowles also serves as Tampa’s de-facto defensive coordinator as well.
Josh Grizzard takes on a new role as Tampa’s new offensive coordinator. He previously served as the passing game coordinator in 2024. The passing game’s explosion surely had his finger prints on it.
Liam Coen, the offensive coordinator last year for the Bucs, left after one season to take the head coaching position in Jacksonville.
The Roster:
Baker Mayfield has become a top flight passer in the NFL, ranking 3rd in passing yards last season with a career high 4,500 yards through the air. This was also while Chris Godwin suffered a season ending injury in week 7, and leading receiver Mike Evans missed 3 games due to injury. Mayfield shut a lot of critics up last season.
RB Bucky Irving had a stellar rookie season last year, rushing for 1,122 yards, ranking 10th in the league. His emergence certainly can also assist the passing game, forcing defenses to be honest and not overplay the pass.
LB and leader Lavonte David returns to Tampa on a 1 year contract.
OLB Haason Reddick also returns on a 1 year contract.
WR Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State) was drafted in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft, and certainly projects to help an already elite passing attack remain just that.
WR Chris Godwin, back from injury, signed a 3 year, $66 million contract to remain in Tampa.
For all of the talk of Tampa winning the NFC South due to very little competition (myself included), you simply can’t discount their offense. They rack up yardage and points with the best of them.
There’s really just 2 questions facing the Bucs entering the 2025 season:
Can the horrid pass defense get to, at least, average? If they can rank anywhere from, say 14th - 18th in passing defense, that would be a huge step up from where they were in 2024, and could provide enough of a lift, provided their offense remains near the top of the league.
Can Baker Mayfield and the offense repeat such success without Liam Coen as offensive coordinator? Sure, Baker played well in 2023, but he and the offense completely exploded last year, the only year under Coen. How much success was due to the players on the field, and how much was credited to Coen for play design and scheme? We will find out this year.
Carolina Panthers
In 2024:
5-12 record
29th in total offense
30th in passing offense
18th in rushing offense
32nd in total defense
23rd in passing defense
32nd in rushing defense
Listen, for as bad as Tampa’s (pass-only) defense was last year, Carolina’s rushing defense was far worse. Like, all-time bad. Not only did Carolina rank dead last in rushing defense, they allowed over 38 yards per game MORE than the 31st ranked team.
I’ll pause and let that sink in for a minute…
Ok we’ll now proceed.
If ever a team needed to add every acquisition they possibly could to the defensive line, it’s the Carolina Panthers. But how much can they improve in 2025?
The Coaching Staff:
Dave Canales returns for his 2nd year as head coach of the Panthers.
Brad Idzik also returns as the offensive coordinator for his 2nd year in Carolina.
Ejiro Evero returns as well for his 3rd season as the defensive coordinator. Of all the coaches on the staff, one would have to assume his seat is the hottest, considering the defense’s performance last season.
The Roster:
Bryce Young enters 2025 as the starting QB again, after briefly losing that spot last year to veteran Andy Dalton. But there was a pretty stark difference in Young on the field from pre-benching to post-benching. After Young regained the starting position in week 8, Carolina went 4-6 over the final 10 games of the season. Sure, still a losing record, but considering that the team went 5-12 for the whole season, this showed improvement.
Perhaps the most impressive moments during that 10 game stretch were actually 2 losses. Of those 6 losses during that stretch, one of them was a 1 possession loss to the then-defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs, and the other was also a 1 possession loss to the then-eventual Super Bowl Champion Philadelphia Eagles. QB Bryce Young, and the Panthers team as a whole, really opened some eyes during this run.
Carolina’s strength on offense was their rushing attack, and it could be equally as strong in 2025, maybe even stronger. Starting RB Chuba Hubbard returns, along with free agent signing Rico Dowdle (also a 1,000 yard rusher in 2024). Plus, there’s rookie Trevor Etienne that will likely get some snaps as well.
RB Miles Sanders was released following the season.
While it could’ve been assumed that the 1st round draft pick would go towards the defensive line, it was actually used to acquire WR Tetairoa McMillan, who hopes to improve the passing attack and give Bryce Young a (literally) big passing threat.
The Panthers surely showed some promise as the 2024 season came to a close. There’s still an overall lack of talent in certain spots on the roster, but the real key, like Tampa, is two-fold.
Can the rushing defense improve? At least to a certain extent. If not, then not much else will matter in 2025.
Can Bryce Young take that next step and become the franchise QB in Carolina? At the beginning of last season, it was certainly looking like that answer was a resounding “no.” But, as mentioned above, he looked like a completely different player when he resumed his staring duties in week 8. If he can build off of that stretch that finished off the 2024 season, then Carolina could possibly make some noise in this division.
Atlanta Falcons
In 2024:
8-9 record
6th in total offesne
5th in passing offense
10th in rushing offense
23rd in total defense
22nd in passing defense
15th in rushing defense
It surely seems that the NFC South largely had a problem playing defense in 2024. Not much to speak of there, but offense was once again the story in Atlanta, notably at the QB position. Kirk Cousins was signed to a lucrative contract in free agency, and then shortly thereafter, Michael Penix Jr. was drafted in the first round of the 2024 draft. Both QB’s had varying levels of success last season, but not quite consistent enough to put Atlanta over the hump. Can that consistency be found as we enter the 2025 season?
The Coaching Staff:
Raheem Morris returns for his 2nd full season as head coach in Atlanta. Previously, Morris had also served on the Falcons staff in a variety of roles from 2015-2020.
Jeff Ulbrich has been brought in as the new defensive coordinator. Ulbrich was the interim head coach for the New York Jets last season after Robert Saleh was fired. Ulbrich was previously the DC for the Jets from 2021-2024, overseeing some pretty good defenses. The hope is that he can improve the Atlanta defense to become one of the better, if not the best, defense in the NFC South.
Zac Robinson returns for his 2nd season as offensive coordinator. Robinson comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree, having served on the Rams’ staff from 2019-2023 in a variety of roles, including QBs coach and passing game coordinator.
The Roster:
QB Michael Penix Jr. enters his first full season as the starter, after taking over for Kirk Cousins late last season and starting the final 3 games in 2024.
After trade speculation, it appears that Kirk Cousins will indeed stay with the team in the backup QB role behind Penix.
RB Bijan Robinson has emerged as one of the top RBs in the NFL. He racked up 1,456 rushing yards in 2024, along with 14 rushing TDs. His presence in the run game would surely help a young QB in Penix by taking some pressure off of the passing game.
WRs Drake London and Darnell Mooney both return at the top of the WR depth chart, one of the better 1-2 punches in the league. Add TE Kyle Pitts to the list of receiving threats, and there’s no shortage of weapons for Penix to work with.
The secondary returns a couple of elite players in CB A.J. Terrell and S Jessie Bates.
EDGE Leonard Floyd was signed in free agency to a 1 year, $10 million contract.
OLB Jaylon Walker was drafted in the first round of the 2025 draft. His addition, along with Floyd, look to help a pass rush that has been one of the worst in the NFL over the last few years.
Speaking of that pass rush, the Falcons ranked 31st in the NFL in 2024 with 31 total sacks, and they’ve finished near the bottom of this list for a handful of years now. If that can be fixed, or at least improved upon this year, then Atlanta would stand a strong chance at having the best defense in the NFC South.
But, in reality, the hopes of the Atlanta Falcons in 2025 lie with Michael Penix. Atlanta was the only legitimate threat to Tampa Bay last year within the division, and if Penix can ascend and become a franchise QB (similar to Young’s situation in Carolina), then Atlanta could easily unseat the Bucs atop the division. It’s just a big “IF.”
New Orleans Saints
In 2024:
5-12 record
21st in total offense
23rd in passing offense
14th in rushing offesne
30th in total defense
27th in passing defense
31st in rushing defense
Playing defense in the NFC South was clearly optional in 2024. All four teams finished in the bottom half of the league in total defense, with Carolina and New Orleans really standing out all the way at the bottom.
To put it bluntly, the Saints just don’t have enough talent. It’s not really a complicated scene in New Orleans. They just flat out need better players. Easier said than done, of course. But, that’s not to say there’s no talent on this team. There surely is. But as we enter a new season, is there enough talent to make a real difference?
The Coaching Staff:
Former head coach Dennis Allen was fired during the 2024 season.
Enter Kellen Moore as the new head coach in New Orleans. Moore previously had stints as the OC for the Dallas Cowboys (2019-2022) and the Los Angeles Chargers (2023), before becoming a Super Bowl winning OC for the Philadelphia Eagles in 2024.
Doug Nussmeier has been brought in as the new offensive coordinator. Nussmeier has been with new head coach Kellen Moore at all three of those previously mentioned stops. He served as the QB coach in Dallas from 2020-2022, QB coach for the Chargers in 2023, and QB coach for the Eagles in 2024. Moore clearly feels comfortable with Nussmeier in this role.
Brandon Staley, former head coach of the Los Angeles Chargers, has been brought in as the new defensive coordinator. Staley also worked with both of the aforementioned coaches in L.A., as Staley was the head coach there from 2021-2023.
The Roster:
Former starting QB Derek Carr retired this offseason following a shoulder injury.
2nd year QB Spencer Rattler returns, although in all likelihood in a backup role.
2025 2nd round draft pick Tyler Shough projects to be the starting QB in New Orleans. At 25 years old, and with 7 seasons of college football under his belt, he would be one of the older and more experienced rookie QBs in recent memory.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) ranked the Saints defensive line as the worst in the NFL entering the 2025 season. Cameron Jordan, at nearly 36 years old, is still playing at a high level, but has very little help along the defensive front.
RB Alvin Kamara is a known commodity and pro bowler, and he, along with rookie RB Devin Neal, could provide a nice combination at the RB position to alleviate some pressure off the rookie QB.
WR Brandin Cooks has returned to New Orleans, signing with the Saints this offseason.
Chris Olave is most certainly WR1 on this team, and perhaps one of the more underrated WR’s in the NFL. He does have one major issue, however, and it’s not related to his skill on the field. The greatest ability is availability, right? Well, that ability hasn’t been a strong suit for Chris Olave. After suffering 5 concussions already in his short career, it’s become a major cause for concern for Olave. Keeping him healthy will be a top priority, no doubt.
Another issue also facing Chris Olave is the contract situation. New Orleans did pick up his 5th year option, so he is currently under contract for 2 more seasons. But, due to the Saint’s salary cap constraints, speculation has arisen regarding a potential trade. Although it’s unlikely to happen this year, it could be something to keep an eye out for.
The Saints are clearly in a rebuild phase, and just need more talent across the board. If the new coaching regime can push this team in the right direction, then they could become a respectable team in 2025. But they still don’t seem to be at a point where they can be considered legitimate threats in the NFC South just yet.
So… who wins the NFC South in 2025?
This is a tough division to predict, mainly due to the unknown at the QB position for Carolina and Atlanta. If either Bryce Young and/or Michael Penix Jr. take a leap forward, that could catapult their teams to the top of the division. While Tampa is a good team, they’re not among the elite of the NFL. There’s a window of opportunity for one of these other teams to unseat them at the top, but it’s just a huge question mark until it actually happens.
For these reasons, I choose the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win their 5th consecutive NFC South division title. I feel less confident in this pick than maybe some other divisions, mainly due to the unknown at QB for Carolina, and more specifically, Atlanta. There’s easily a scenario where Young or Penix ascend and knock Tampa off the top spot.
But, as of now, there’s no precedent to serve as proof. Until we see it with our own eyes, logic dictates that Tampa could rack up a 5th straight division crown.
Maybe Cleveland should have just kept Baker Mayfield around, ya know?